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Georgia-Russia tensions ramped up

ips — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:59:05 GMT

Russia plans to boost troop numbers in Abkhazia and S Ossetia

Russia has warned it will retaliate if Georgia uses force against its breakaway regions.

Moscow has accused Georgia of preparing to invade Abkhazia, and says it is boosting Russian forces there and in the South Ossetia region.

Georgia has reacted angrily to the Russian move, which its prime minister called "irresponsible".

The EU also urged caution, saying to increase troop numbers would be unwise given current tensions.

Russia's foreign minister said his country was not preparing for war but would "retaliate" against any attack.

Russia says Georgia is massing 1,500 soldiers and police in the upper Kodori Gorge, the only part of Abkhazia which remains under government control.

'Retaliatory measures'

A statement from the Russian foreign ministry said that "a bridgehead is being prepared for the start of military operations against Abkhazia".

In response, it said, it was increasing Russian peacekeepers in both Abkhazia and Georgia's other breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Georgia denies any build-up of its own forces in the area, and says that Russia is taking provocative action.

From now on, we consider every soldier or any unit of military equipment coming in [to Abkhazia] as illegal, potential aggressors and potential generators of destabilisation

Lado Gurgenidze
Prime Minister of Georgia

"We think that this step, if they take it, will cause extreme destabilisation in the region," said Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze.

"From now on, we consider every [Russian] soldier or any unit of military equipment coming in [to Abkhazia and South Ossetia] as illegal, potential aggressors and potential generators of destabilisation."

After meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana called on Russia to show restraint.

"Even if the increase in peacekeepers is within limits, if we want to diminish the perception of tensions, I don't think it is a wise measure to increase now," Mr Solana said.

Mr Lavrov said that Russia had to protect Russian-passport holders in the regions and that if Georgia took military action, Russia would have to take "retaliatory measures".

Mr Solana's comments reflect a growing concern that Nato's promise to admit Georgia as a member one day, despite strong Russian opposition, could have unpredictable consequences, says the BBC's European affairs correspondent Oana Lungescu.

Peacekeeping force

Russia has kept a peacekeeping force in Abkhazia and South Ossetia under an agreement made following the wars of the 1990s, when the regions broke away from Tbilisi and formed links with Moscow.

There are around 2,000 Russians posted in Abkhazia, and about 1,000 in South Ossetia.

Tensions between Russia and Georgia have flared up recently, despite Russia lifting economic sanctions against Georgia earlier this month.

Georgia's president has vowed to reunite the country

Last week Georgia accused a Russian plane of shooting down an unmanned Georgian spy plane - which Russian authorities insisted was shot down by Abkhaz rebels.

And on Tuesday Georgia said it was blocking Russia's entry to the World Trade Organization.

Many in Abkhazia believe that Kosovo's announcement of independence from Serbia in February provides a precedent for it to be recognised as an individual state.

Although it has its own flag and postage stamps, it is not internationally recognised.

Our correspondent in the area says that with this latest statement the Russian government has pushed the already bellicose rhetoric between the two countries to a new level.

Open season on Nigeria's Obasanjo

ips — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 07:59:03 GMT

By Patrick Smith
Editor, Africa Confidential

The humiliation of Nigeria's ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo is forging ahead, less than a year after he left office.

Many Nigerians expected Mr Obasanjo to rule from behind the scenes

In the past few months, parliamentary committees have exposed allegations of government corruption during his eight-year tenure that sit uneasily with his image as a reformer.

Nigeria's press runs lurid tales of family scandals.

Investigators have charged his daughter, Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, with complicity in a scam to defraud the health ministry.

A few months before the April 2007 elections, Mr Obasanjo anointed as his successor Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, a relatively little-known state governor from a great family in the Muslim north.

Many Nigerians expected the outgoing president to carry on ruling from behind the scenes, but Mr Obasanjo's influence has waned and his confidants say that the northern power brokers around Mr Yar'Adua are pursuing a vendetta that will cost him, at the very least, his reputation.

Some of them want him arrested.

Regional divide

Mr Obasanjo is from the south-west. His confidants argue that the powerful northerners, embittered by the liberal economic reforms and privatisations of his tenure, are taking revenge now that one of their own is back in the presidency.

OBASANJO 'WITCH-HUNT'

May 2007: President Obasanjo stands down

July 2007: Nigerian tycoon pulls out of purchase of oil refineries

Feb 2008: Privatisation of former phone monopoly Nitel cancelled

March 2008: Obasanjo ally loses vote to lead ruling party

Obasanjo's government accused of funnelling $50m to fake companies

Daughter Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello accused of receiving $85,000 from health ministry

April 2008: Son-in-law Kenny Martins questioned over $42m missing from Police Equipment Fund

Obasanjo ally Mallam Nasir el-Rufai accused of giving land to his and Obasanjo's relatives

National Assembly launch probe into oil and gas under President Obasanjo

Obasanjo family 'witch-hunt'

Ex-leader in adultery case

The Obasanjo camp says that this is an attempt to victimise the family.

But one aide to Mr Yar'Adua maintains that Mr Obasanjo's final three years were the most corrupt since Nigeria's independence in 1960.

Both sides tend to agree that Mr Yar'Adua is not personally orchestrating the investigations into his predecessor.

The president's refusal to interfere in various parliamentary and ministerial inquiries is in line with his hands-off style, contrasting with that of Mr Obasanjo, who had a reputation for involving himself in the details of government business.

Since Mr Obasanjo played a key role in so many decisions, legislators want to find out how far he was himself involved in the dubious dealings they are unearthing.

The most sensational revelations stem from an inquiry into the power sector, begun by a panel in the House of Representatives after Mr Yar'Adua said in January that more than $10bn had been spent on electricity under the previous government, with little to show for it.

Score settling

Televised hearings revealing allegations of huge sums given to contractors for little or no work have rankled amid the chronic power crisis.

Nigeria's power supply remains patchy despite a $10bn investment

Some of the investigators' targets insist that the Abuja witch-hunt is inspired by a host of disgruntled elements with personal scores to settle.

The Senate, for example, is looking into some controversial land sales in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) during the tenure of Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, one of Mr Obasanjo's favourite ministers.

Mr Rufai is alleged to have parcelled out land to members of his own family and the former president's.

He denies any impropriety; supporters note that the chairman of the investigation had his Abuja property bulldozed after building what the FCT said was an illegal structure.

The Senate has looked into the use of a special aviation fund by Femi Fani-Kayode, the former aviation minister, another Obasanjo ally.

Mr Obasanjo's name surfaced again when the government cancelled the sale of the Ajaokuta Steel Mill, for long a notorious white elephant, to Global Infrastructure Holdings Ltd, controlled by the world's leading steelmaker, Pramod Mittal.

A panel has concluded that the deal was skewed in favour of the company and Mr Yar'Adua has called for the prosecution of its "promoters".

Governors' glee

Mrs Obasanjo-Bello, the ex-president's eldest daughter, hit the headlines when the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), created by her father in 2003, charged her with involvement in a scam to defraud the health ministry.

Mr Yar'Adua dismissed Health Minister Adenike Grange and junior Health Minister Gabriel Aduku, accused by the EFCC of involvement in a plan to embezzle unspent ministry funds, following a directive that ministries should return unspent funds at the end of the year.

Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello says there is a witch-hunt against her family

The accusation was that Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello, as chair of the Senate Health Committee, received 10m naira ($85,000), which she claimed was for an official committee retreat in Ghana. EFCC agents have raided her home.

One interest group that cheers on every blow against Mr Obasanjo consists of those former state governors who were charged with corruption last year.

They lost their immunity from prosecution after stepping down at last April's elections and eight of them face graft charges.

They hope that evidence of abuse in the federal government under Mr Obasanjo will weaken the moral authority of the EFCC, a federal body, in prosecuting alleged offences at state level.

The inquiries also divert attention from the incumbents' failings.

Mr Yar'Adua earned the name of "Mr Go-Slow" after he took office last May, but has had some important victories in recent months.

He won an appeal to the presidential election tribunal in February.

In March, his supporters blocked attempts by Mr Obasanjo to foist his preferred candidate, Sam Egwu, into the chairmanship of the ruling People's Democratic Party.

There may be nasty surprises to come.

Some lawmakers are calling for an inquiry into the oil sector, in particular the running of the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, widely perceived as the home of some of Nigeria's most explosive scandals - and the source of gigantic sums of money.

A full version of this article appears in Africa Confidential, a fortnightly bulletin on African affairs